# 1.6 Sustainable Development and Environment

## 1.6 Current Periodic Plan of Nepal 📅📊

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### 🗺️ Planned Development Efforts in Nepal

#### 🌍 Historical Context

* **First plan in the world:** **"Piatiletka"** (Russian for "five-year plan") introduced by **Russia/USSR in 1928 AD**.
* **Nepal's first plan:** **2013 B.S. (1956 AD)** – the **First Five-Year Development Plan**.
* As of now, **15 periodic plans** have been completed; the **16th Plan** is currently in effect.
* Nepal has implemented **eleven five-year plans** and **five three-year plans**.

#### 📈 Evolution of Planning

* **First Five-Year Plan:** 2013 B.S.
* **First Three-Year Plan:** 2019 B.S.
* **Before 2046 B.S.:** State-controlled economy; minimal private sector role.
* **After 2046 B.S.:** Open and liberal economic policy; private sector involvement increased from the **8th Plan**.
* **Bottom-up approach** initiated from the **8th Plan**.
* **Long-term perspective planning** started from the **9th Plan** (poverty alleviation vision).
* **Cooperatives** recognized as a pillar of the economy since the **11th Plan**.
* **13th Three-Year Plan:** Vision to upgrade Nepal from **Least Developed Country (LDC)** to **Developing Country by 2022**.
* **Post-2062/63:** Political transition led to **interim three-year plans**.
* **Plan Holidays** (years without plans):
  * **2018–2019 B.S.**
  * **2047–2049 B.S.**

#### 🏛️ Current Planning Framework

* **16th Five-Year Plan (FY 2081/82–2085/86)** is in effect.
* **Goal:** Proportional, inclusive, participatory development with **social justice**, **equality**, and **economic prosperity**.
* **Economic Objective:** Build a **socialist-oriented**, **prosperous**, **independent**, and **progressive** economy.
* **Key Targets:**
  * **Upgrade from LDC to Developing Country by 2083 B.S. (2026 AD)**.
  * **Achieve Middle-Income Country status by 2087 B.S. (2030 AD)** by meeting **Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)**.

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### 📘 Brief Review of Planned Development Efforts

#### 🏗️ Phases of Development

1. **First Plan (2013/14–2017/18):** Focus on **living standards**, **agriculture**, **roads**, **electricity**.
2. **Panchayat Era (2017–2046 B.S.):** **2nd to 7th Plans**.
3. **Post-2046 B.S. (Multi-party Democracy):** **8th to 13th Plans**.
4. **Post-2072 B.S. (Federal Democratic Republic):** **14th Plan onwards**.
5. **15th Plan (2076/77–2080/81):** First plan under federal structure; **provincial and local plans** developed.

#### 📊 Plan Types

* **Five-Year Plans:** 10 total
* **Three-Year Plans:** 5 total (2nd, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th)
* **Non-planned years:** 2018/19, 2047/48, 2048/49

#### 🎯 Thematic Evolution

* **Early Plans:** Infrastructure, resource use.
* **Mid-Plans:** Economic growth, job creation, social equity.
* **Later Plans:** Economic reforms, poverty reduction, post-conflict reconstruction, federalism.

#### ✨ Achievements

* **Poverty reduction**, **agricultural growth**, **tourism development**, **energy sector expansion**.
* **Women's empowerment:** Female literacy rose from **25% to 69.4%**; **27.7% women in civil service**.
* Improved **maternal and child mortality rates**.

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### 📉 Review of the 15th Plan (FY 2076/77–2080/81)

#### ⚠️ Challenges

* **COVID-19 Pandemic:**
  * Economic contraction: **-2.4% in FY 2076/77**.
  * GDP loss: **Rs. 2.89 trillion (FY 2076/77)**, **Rs. 3.33 trillion (FY 2077/78)**.
  * Poverty increased by **4%** (1.2 million more below poverty line).
* **Slow recovery:** Average growth **2.6%** vs. target **9.6%**.
* **External shocks:** Russia-Ukraine conflict, earthquake in 2080 B.S.
* **High inflation:** Average **7.7%**.
* **Low foreign investment**.

#### 📊 Sectoral Performance

* **Agriculture, forestry, fisheries:** Contribution to GDP fell to **22.3%**.
* **Manufacturing:** Contribution to GDP **6.5%** (below target).
* **Positive areas:** Hydropower generation, tourist arrivals, remittances, foreign exchange reserves.

#### 🏛️ Political Context

* **Political stability** achieved after federal, provincial, and local elections.
* **Long-term vision** needed for **rapid economic development** and **prosperity**.

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### 🎯 Long-Term Vision: **"Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali"** 🇳🇵

#### 🌟 Vision Statement

A country where **equal opportunity**, **healthy**, **educated**, **dignified**, and **happy citizens** with a **high living standard** reside, along with an **affluent**, **self-reliant**, and **socialism-oriented** national economy.

#### 🏆 Long-Term National Goals

| **Prosperity** 🏙️                                               | **Happiness** 😊                          |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------- |
| 1. Accessible modern infrastructure and intensive connectivity.  | 1. Well-being and decent life.            |
| 2. Development and full utilization of human capital potentials. | 2. Safe, civilized, and just society.     |
| 3. High and sustainable production and productivity.             | 3. Healthy and balanced environment.      |
| 4. High and equitable national income.                           | 4. Good governance.                       |
|                                                                  | 5. Comprehensive democracy.               |
|                                                                  | 6. National unity, security, and dignity. |

#### 🛠️ Long-Term National Strategies

* Achieve **rapid**, **sustainable**, **employment-oriented** economic growth.
* Ensure **accessible**, **quality** health and education.
* Develop **internal and international connectivity** and **sustainable cities**.
* Increase **production and productivity**.
* Ensure **full**, **sustainable**, **productive social security** and **socio-economic equality**.
* Conserve and mobilize **natural resources**; build **resilience**.
* Enhance **public services**, maintain **national unity**, **provincial balance**.

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### 📈 Major Quantitative Targets of the Long-Term Vision (FY 2100/01)

| S.N. | Indicator                            | Unit        | Status (FY 2075/76) | Target (FY 2100/01) |
| ---- | ------------------------------------ | ----------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| 1    | Economic growth rate (avg.)          | %           | 6.8                 | 10.5                |
| 2    | Agriculture & forest sector in GDP   | %           | 27                  | 9                   |
| 3    | Industrial sector in GDP             | %           | 15.2                | 30                  |
| 4    | Service sector in GDP                | %           | 57.8                | 61                  |
| 5    | Per Capita GNI                       | US$         | 1,047               | 12,100              |
| 6    | Population below poverty line        | %           | 18.7                | 0                   |
| 7    | Multi-dimensional poverty            | %           | 28.6                | 0                   |
| 8    | Palma ratio (top 10% / bottom 40%)   | Times       | 1.3                 | 1.1                 |
| 9    | Gini Coefficient                     | Coefficient | 0.31                | 0.25                |
| 10   | Labor participation rate (15+ years) | %           | 38.5                | 72                  |
| 11   | Unemployment rate                    | %           | 11.4                | 3                   |
| 12   | Formal sector employment             | %           | 36.5                | 70                  |
| 13   | Hydro & renewable energy capacity    | MW          | 1,250               | 40,000              |
| 14   | Households with electricity access   | %           | 88                  | 100                 |
| 15   | Per capita electricity consumption   | kWh         | 245                 | 3,500               |
| 16   | Households within 30 min transport   | %           | 82                  | 99                  |
| 17   | National & provincial highways       | km          | 7,794               | 33,000              |
| 18   | Fast track (≥2 lanes)                | km          | 96                  | 3,000               |
| 19   | Railways                             | km          | 42                  | 2,200               |
| 20   | Internet users                       | %           | 65.9                | 100                 |
| 21   | Life expectancy at birth             | Years       | 69.7                | 80                  |
| 22   | Maternal mortality rate              | Per 100k    | 239                 | 20                  |
| 23   | Under-5 child mortality              | Per 1k      | 39                  | 8                   |
| 24   | Underweight children (<5 yrs)        | %           | 27                  | 2                   |
| 25   | Literacy rate (15+ years)            | %           | 58                  | 99                  |
| 26   | Net enrolment (9–12)                 | %           | 46                  | 95                  |
| 27   | Gross enrolment in higher education  | %           | 12                  | 40                  |
| 28   | Access to medium-high quality water  | %           | 21                  | 95                  |
| 29   | Covered by basic social security     | %           | 17                  | 100                 |
| 30   | Gender Development Index (GDI)       | Index       | 0.897               | 0.99                |
| 31   | Human Development Index (HDI)        | Index       | 0.579               | 0.760               |

> **Note:** Zero poverty indicates a poverty rate **below 1%**.\
> **Source:** National Planning Commission.

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### 🗓️ 16th Plan (FY 2081/82 – 2085/86)

#### 🎯 Vision

**"Good Governance, Social Justice and Prosperity"**\
Sustainable and inclusive prosperity with **socialist characteristics** can only be achieved through **good governance**.

#### 🚀 Mission

1. Maintain **good governance** in political, administrative, judicial, private, and NGO sectors.
2. Establish **social justice** in health, education, employment, housing, security, and public service delivery.
3. Achieve **prosperity** in human life and the national economy.

#### 🔄 Holistic Strategy

1. Increase **production**, **productivity**, **competitiveness** by addressing structural obstacles.
2. Implement **sustainable development** by strengthening federal-provincial-local and public-private-cooperative partnerships.
3. Internalize **gender mainstreaming**, **modern technology**, **environmental protection**, **disaster risk reduction**.
4. Base policy and programs on **evidence**, **research**, **facts**.

#### 🏗️ Major Areas of Structural Transformation

1. Strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals and higher economic growth.
2. Increase production, productivity, and competitiveness.
3. Productive employment, decent labor, sustainable social security.
4. Creation of healthy, educated, skilled human capital.
5. Quality physical infrastructure and intensive interconnection.
6. Planned, sustainable urbanization and slum development.
7. Gender equality, social justice, inclusive society.
8. Strengthening and balanced development of regional and local economy.
9. Reducing poverty and inequality; building an equitable society.
10. Effective financial management and capital expenditure capacity.
11. Government reform and promotion of good governance.
12. Biodiversity, climate change, and green economy.
13. Easy graduation from LDC and SDG implementation.

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### 📊 Quantitative Targets of the 16th Plan

#### 📜 National Goals of Good Governance

| S.N. | Indicator                             | Unit  | Status (FY 2079/80) | Target (FY 2085/86) |
| ---- | ------------------------------------- | ----- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| 1    | Rule of Law Index                     | Ratio | 0.52                | 0.80                |
| 2    | World Competitive Index               | Ratio | 52                  | 65                  |
| 3    | Corruption Reduction Perception Index | Ratio | 35                  | 43                  |
| 4    | Digital Governance Development Index  | Ratio | 0.512               | 0.600               |
| 5    | Voters Participation Index            | %     | 62                  | 85                  |
| 6    | Disposition of court cases            | %     | 64                  | 75                  |
| 7    | Expenditure to Total Allocation Ratio | %     | 80                  | 90                  |

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